The Upspiral: How Authors Can Survive Publishing Industry Upheaval

Yet amid this devastation, something remarkable happened. Small, adaptable mammals—creatures that had existed in the shadows of dinosaurs for eons—suddenly found new ecological niches opening up. These seemingly insignificant species survived to become the ancestors of an extraordinary radiation of life, eventually giving rise to everything from whales to primates to humans.

This pattern—catastrophic change followed by unexpected opportunity—isn’t unique to the dinosaur extinction. It has recurred throughout Earth’s history in what paleontologists call the “Big Five” mass extinction events. Each time, between 70-95% of species disappeared. And each time, the survivors didn’t just endure—they evolved, diversified, and ultimately thrived in ways that were impossible under previous conditions.

For authors on social media, every day can feel like the beginning of an extinction cycle.

The Survivability Paradox

Here’s the counterintuitive truth revealed by Earth’s extinction events: the species that dominated before catastrophes were rarely the ones that thrived afterward. The mighty, specialized dinosaurs disappeared while seemingly insignificant mammals survived. The elaborate trilobites vanished while simple shellfish endured.

The same pattern applies to publishing. The strategies that create mammoth success during one phase often become liabilities when the ecosystem shifts. Meanwhile, authors who developed adaptable, sustainable practices—who honored their natural creative oscillations rather than forcing production—often navigate transitions more successfully.

This explains a puzzling phenomenon: why some extremely successful authors suddenly disappear while midlist writers sometimes outlast them. The superstar authors optimized entirely for one specific ecosystem, while the sustainable authors built adaptable practices that could evolve with the market.

The Oscillation Advantage

Understanding your creative oscillations isn’t just about personal well-being—it’s a survival strategy for an unpredictable marketplace. Here’s why:

1. Metabolic Advantage: During extinction events, species with lower metabolic needs were more likely to survive resource scarcity. Similarly, authors who don’t require constant high-output production to maintain their practice can outlast market downturns.
2. Adaptive Flexibility: Species with diverse capabilities adapted faster to new conditions. Authors who honor their creative rhythms develop multiple skills as they move through different phases, making them more adaptable to market shifts.
3. Recovery Resilience: Organisms that could hibernate or enter low-energy states survived when food sources temporarily disappeared. Your ability to move into deliberate recovery phases without losing your practice entirely serves the same function during publishing “winters.”
4. Diversification Protection: The mammals that survived the dinosaur extinction weren’t specialized to one niche. Authors who understand their oscillations naturally develop diverse projects at different stages, creating protection against single-point market failures.

Your Survivability Assessment

This week, I want you to evaluate your publishing practice through the lens of extinction survivability:

1. Metabolic Requirements: How much ongoing investment (time, money, energy) does your current author business require to maintain? Could you survive a 50% market downturn?
2. Adaptive Capacity: How easily can you pivot between different types of projects, formats, or markets based on your energy patterns and skills?
3. Recovery Protocols: Do you have established practices for creative hibernation that maintain core capabilities while minimizing resource expenditure?
4. Portfolio Diversity: Does your Progress Pulse board show projects in different stages, markets, and formats, or are all your efforts concentrated in one area?

Learning from the Survivors

History’s greatest mass extinction—the Permian-Triassic event 252 million years ago—eliminated roughly 95% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrates. Yet some organisms not only survived but set the stage for unprecedented diversification afterward.

What characterized these survivors?

• They required minimal resources to maintain their basic functions.
• They could adapt to dramatically different environmental conditions.
• They possessed generalized rather than highly specialized traits.
• They could enter dormant states when conditions became hostile.

The parallel for authors is striking. The most successful long-term publishing careers demonstrate these same characteristics—not constant high production, but sustainable oscillation between different creative states; not specialized optimization for one platform or technique, but adaptable approaches that work across multiple channels.

Implementation: Your Extinction-Proof Creative Practice

Here are specific steps to apply these evolutionary lessons to your author business:

1. Resource Audit: Identify the minimum resources needed to maintain your core creative practice. Create a “survival mode” plan that preserves these essentials while temporarily suspending everything else.
2. Skill Diversification: Based on your Progress Pulse patterns, identify which creative modes come most naturally to you (🌊, ⚡, or 🌀). Develop at least one project that exercises your less-dominant mode.
3. Hibernation Protocol: Design a specific plan for creative dormancy—not abandonment, but a deliberately reduced activity that preserves your practice during challenging periods.
4. Niche Expansion: Choose one project from your “Brewing” column that reaches beyond your current audience or format. Move it into “Building” with minimal resource investment.

The Long Game

Remember this fundamental truth: the publishing ecosystem has experienced numerous extinction events, yet the overall market continues to grow stronger. More books are being read than ever before. More authors are making a living than at any point in history. The opportunities are greater, even as competition intensifies.

Your goal isn’t to avoid the extinctions—they’re inevitable. Your goal is to build a creative practice resilient enough to survive them and flexible enough to take advantage of the new opportunities they create.

Mammals didn’t outlast dinosaurs because they were bigger, stronger, or more productive. They survived because they were adaptable, efficient, and could thrive in the margins while titans fell around them.

Looking Ahead

Next week, we’ll explore specific strategies for building what I call “Minimum Viable Creativity”—the core practices that sustain your creative identity even during the most challenging market conditions.

This Week’s Challenge

Review your Progress Pulse board through the lens of extinction survival. Identify one project that represents your “survival adaptation”—work that requires minimal resources, exercises your natural strengths, and could theoretically continue even during a major market disruption. Give this project special attention this week, regardless of its current energy marker.

The most inspiring aspect of extinction events isn’t just that some species survive—it’s that the survivors often evolve into forms more extraordinary than what existed before. Your publishing journey might face extinction-level challenges, but with the right adaptations, you could emerge more creative, fulfilled, and successful than you can currently imagine.